Prop – Tennis – 26 Games or Fewers, 27 Games or More (Murray vs Gimeno-Traver)

Andy Murray has played in 5 Wimbledon tournaments and has only played 26 or fewer games in his first round match one time. Daniel Gimeno-Traver has only played in Wimbledon twice and gone 27+ games the first time he played and 26 games or fewer last year.

Murray is on an absolute roll so far this year, he just dispatched Andy Roddick with tremendous ease on grass at Queens. The question is will he totally dominate Gimeno-Traver or not. Winning handily (6-3, 6-3, 6-3) would not be enough, Murray must demolish his opponent. In their two previous outings once during the Challenger stage of their careers there was a tight match and once two years ago Murray demolished Traver. The odds however are against Murray. One tight set would swing this prop in favor of the over dramatically. One 7-5 set would more or less ensure an over on this prop. I don’t like picking against someone as hot as Murray and this is really a toss up but Murray’s past history would indicate this should go over. Even a comfortable straight set win would go over. I think something like 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 is likely and that would put this prop over so I would go with the over.

Pick: 27 Games or More

Prop – Golf – Mahan vs Fowler – Lower Front 9

I don’t like these “sprint 9-hole props”, but if you’re going to increase your streak quickly, they sure help a lot if you can get them right.  Both Fowler and Mahan have both played fairly well this year, but no one is going to blow this course away this year.  If anything, the course will blow up the players.  This 9-hole prop is very difficult to call, but I would tend to suggest taking the older Hunter Mahan.  He may not drive the ball as far, but he hits more fairways and that’s what you need on a US Open course.  Straight and easy.  He should win this with probably even par or one under.

Pick: Hunter Mahan

Prop – Golf – Phil Mickelson’s First Round

All reports and notions point towards Phil Mickelson playing very good golf right now.  After yesterday’s visit to the White House, he should be inspired and ready to take the Congressional head on.  He’s finished in 2nd place 5 times and had a great T-4th last year.  Based on the scores so far today, I can imagine that he’ll salvage par or better.

Pick: 71 or Lower

Prop – Golf – Choi/Kuchar Combined Score on 18th

The 18th is a very demanding Par 4 standing at a long 523 yards and has a guarded green with water all around it.  There aren’t many stats on the history of this hole when under US Open conditions, but I can say that it isn’t easy.  Gathering two pars from Choi and Kuchar could be a lot harder than it looks.

If it were me, I’d check the course stats before they get to the 18th hole and see what other players are doing.  If the pin is in an accessible location on this expansive green, I’d recommend the under, but depending on what the trends are, it could be an easy bogey for one of these two players.  I have to assume two PGA Tour players can par without that knowledge.

Pick: 8 Strokes or Fewer

Prop – MLB – What will be the result of Curtis Granderson’s First Plate Appearance?

So far this season Curtis Granderson has a .344 OBP and has struck out 65 times in 272 Plate Appearances. That means Granderson either gets a Hit, Walk or Strikeout roughly 58% of the time this season. That would imply the odds favor the Hit, Walk, Strikeout option. However, Granderson has not been as good in the first inning posting a .261 OBP in 46 Plate appearances. Granderson has 9 hits, 3 walks, and 9 strikeouts in 46 Plate appearances in the first inning this year or a 45.6% Hit, Walk or Strikeout result. Those first inning splits are relevant because Granderson typically hits 2nd guaranteeing a 1st inning at bat when he hits there.

 

Given his results this year and the near 50/50 ratio performance that he has put up this year I would go with the 1st inning math and say Any other Result here but the numbers speak for themselves and you would do well to avoid this prop.

 

Pick: Any other Result

Prop – NBA – How many Points will Dirk Nowitzki Score in the 1st Half

In Game 5 of the NBA Finals Dirk Nowitzki scored more than 14 points in the first half. Dirk however has only done it once in 5 games so far. He certainly showed in Game 5 that he is capable of scoring points in bunches during the first half but his recent performance definitely warrants the under in this prop. 1 out of 5 so far in this series he has gone over and on the road at a very determined Miami makes it even more likely he will go under. Dirk has been a clutch player and has done tremendous work in the 4th quarter but he hasn’t been a fast starter.

 

Pick: 13 or Fewer points

143rd Belmont Stakes: What will be the Post Position of the Winning Horse?

8 to 4, seems like an obvious choice and the SM is hoping you bite!

First off, eliminate the 2, 3, 7 and 11 horses as they have NO chance, repeat none! Now we’re down to 5 to 3.

Knock out the 6 and the 12 because of the distance (the Belmont is the longest of the Triple Crown races) – the 6 was gassed at the end of the Derby and the 12 couldn’t hold the lead in the Derby and barely held on in the Preakness (the Preakness is the shortest).

Now 4 to 2. The 1, 4 and 5 horses are receiving love to pull the upset but that’s only because you can’t win money betting on the favorites so people are looking at these three for middle-of-the-road odds and increased payouts. Plus, the distance suits them better, but all three of these horses ran against the 9 in the Derby and weren’t that close, so don’t expect anything to change in this race.

This leaves the 8 against the 9 and the 10. The 8 is the wild card as it has not raced in the first two legs – this could give it the edge to pull off the upset but I just don’t think you can pin your hopes on winning this pick on it. Most have also given up on the 10 for several reasons, but most also gave up on the 12 before it won the Preakness, so part of me has a feeling the 10 may pull it out. I don’t think it will but even if it does then you still win.

Only the 9 is left, Animal Kingdom – the Derby winner and Preakness runner-up. The odds are on this horse to win and I expect just that to happen. The only horse to beat the 9 is the 12 but the distance will be too much for it to overcome (even if it does you still win).

The 9 horse, Animal Kingdom will win this race…GUARANTEED, LOCK of the DAY!!! Betting tip – 9, 1, 5 and 4 for the Superfecta

Pick: Winner from Post Position 9-12