Prop – NBA – How many Points will Dirk Nowitzki Score in the 1st Half

In Game 5 of the NBA Finals Dirk Nowitzki scored more than 14 points in the first half. Dirk however has only done it once in 5 games so far. He certainly showed in Game 5 that he is capable of scoring points in bunches during the first half but his recent performance definitely warrants the under in this prop. 1 out of 5 so far in this series he has gone over and on the road at a very determined Miami makes it even more likely he will go under. Dirk has been a clutch player and has done tremendous work in the 4th quarter but he hasn’t been a fast starter.

 

Pick: 13 or Fewer points

NBA – Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks

The Heat has won on the road at least once in each post-season series they’ve played in. They won at Dallas on Sunday, which was only the second time Dallas has lost at home in the playoffs. While the home team does usually have an advantage, it doesn’t appear to necessarily be the case in this series.

If Miami wins tonight, they’ll just need one more victory to win it all. Likely, they’ll get one more win, lose one more, and then take the series back home. However, it’s a toss-up whether they can get that win tonight or if they will win on Thursday. The Heat have struggled when they’ve built up a lead. They have had double-digit leads in all three games and ended up losing Game 2, and allowed Game 3 to come within two points.

The Heat are the better team, but they need to be able to hang on to the lead. I’d go with the Mavs tonight, but the Heat on Thursday, and then the Heat for the championship on Sunday at home. Random stat – since the 2-3-2 format began in 1985, the winner of Game 3 in a tied series has won the championship all 11 times.

In the playoffs, two of Dallas’ losses have been at home, while two were away. During the regular season, 12 of their 25 losses were at home. For Miami, they have lost three playoff games on the road and one at home. In the regular season, 11 of their 24 losses were at home. However, during the regular season, when Dallas and Miami played, Dallas won both games – home and away.

Pick: Dallas Mavericks

Prop – NBA – Total Points Scored in 2nd Half

Currently on the Streak for the Cash page, this prop reads “How many total points will be scored?” However, it is listed at 10:05 (approx) and the game starts at 9 p.m. It appears this text should read “How many total points will be scored in the second half?”

If ESPN doesn’t change it, obviously pick 95 or more. If ESPN waits, this may end up being a push because it took too long to change and people have already made the pick on the incorrect wording.

Assuming ESPN does change the wording, here are the second-half points so far in the series:

Game 1 – 89 total second half points
Game 2 – 86 total second half points
Game 3 – 85 total second half points

The obvious pick is 94 or less. Only the Mavericks in Game 2 have scored over 94 points (with 95) in the series total. These have been close, relatively low-scoring games. If the wording becomes total second half points or total points per either team, take the under.

Pick: 94 points or fewer (assuming the wording changes)

Prop – NBA – Wade vs Nowitzki – Higher 1st Half Total

Here are the numbers for the first three games:
Nowitzki
Game 1 – 13 points in the first half (27 total)
Game 2 – 21 points in the first half (24 total)
Game 3 – 12 in the first half (34 total)

Wade
Game 1 – 7 points in the first half (22 total)
Game 2 – 12 points in the first half (36 total)
Game 3 – 19 points in the first half (29 total)

Nowitzki would win this prop for the first two games. Game 3 was played in Dallas, as is tonight’s game. The Mavericks find themselves putting together second-half surges while the Heat seem to fall apart. It’s a toss-up for sure, but go Wade, as the Heat are likely to come out strong and then falter early in the second half.

Pick: Dwayne Wade (or tie)

NBA – Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

The Miami Heat have been loathed by every other NBA fan out there this year for trying to “buy” their way to a championship.  Well, it sure seems like it’s panning out!  Lebron Jams, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh have formed an incredible trio that has really turned up the focus for this year’s NBA Playoffs.  League MVP Derrick Rose might have something else to say about that as he tries to lead his team back from down 3-1 in this crucial Game 5.  The Bulls are 36-5 at home this year during the regular season and they’ll need that statistic to help them tonight.  After taking a heartbreaking Overtime loss in Game 4, the Chicago Bulls will need to screw their heads on straight and play as a team, not just the Rose Show.  Game 1’s 103-82 blowout was promising and I think that they took a little breather, but while they were resting, Miami came in and took 3 right from underneath them.

The keys for tonight’s game? If Lebron can keep shutting down Derrick Rose with his defense and his teammates help defense, the Bulls probably don’t have a good shot at winning.  They’d need someone else to get hot from the field and it hasn’t happened as of late.  Otherwise, Rose is going to have to orchestrate his team by passing and creating instead of putting up 25 points.  It should be a very good game to watch as the Bulls’ fans will be rowdy in Chicago helping their team to a victory.

((This last part is just personal opinion, but I’ve always felt like the NBA is a tad bit rigged, and if you don’t think that the Lakers losing in 4 and getting these Playoffs their highest ratings in years has anything to do with that, be my guest, but with that said, it definitely gives the edge to continue this incredible series to Game 6.))

Pick: Chicago Bulls

Prop – NBA – 3-Pointer Made in Last 2 min?

Oklahoma City is going to have to clean house in Dallas in order to stay alive in this year’s NBA Playoffs.  There have been a decent amount of threes shot in this series, but the last two minutes of the fourth quarter is very touchy.  In Games 1 and 3, there was a 3-pointer made under the 2 minute mark in the 4th.  That’s really all the statistics that I can give you, but I’d recommend watching the game to see what the flow is.  Obviously if they’re within striking distance of each other, the probability for at least a 3-point attempt goes up a lot.  The same can sometimes be said for blowouts as well.  The losing team can just shoot threes to their hearts desire.

For people on a streak? Avoid this one.  L1’s? I’d say take the no 3-pointer.  Games 1 and 3 only had 1 made in that last 2 minutes.

Pick: No 3PM in last 2 min. of 4th

Prop – NBA – Durant vs Nowitzki – Higher 1st Half Total

Kevin Durant’s first half Points and Assists vs Dirk Nowitzki’s points.  A very straightforward pick to call. To the statistics!

Kevin Durant: (1st half points + game total assists)
Game 1: 13 points + 5 total assists
Game 2: 14 points + 4 total assists
Game 3: 4 points + 5 total assists
Game 4: 10 points + 4 total assists

Dirk Nowitzki:
Game 1: 16 points
Game 2: 6 points
Game 3: 4 points
Game 4: 13 points

Looks like Kevin Durant won 2 of those and Dirk won two of those (assuming half of the assists were in the first half).  This is a crap shoot.  Durant will probably try to take control of the game seeing as if they lose they’re done, so I’d expect him to try and score a lot in the first half along with distributing and controlling the ball.

Pick: Kevin Durant: PTS + AST